Goldman Reduces Global PC Shipment Forecasts, Citing Memory Chip Crunch and Slowing Upgrade Cycle

Goldman Sachs has reduced its global PC shipment forecasts for 2026 through 2028, citing a memory chip shortage and rising component costs. The revised estimates show a 14 percent decline in 2026 and a 5 percent decline in 2027, followed by zero growth in 2028, according to a report by Allen Chang, managing director and head of Goldman’s Greater China Technology research team. The new shipment projections are 255 million units in 2026, 243 million in 2027, and 244 million in 2028, the report stated. [5]

“We further trim our global PC shipment estimates for 2026-27E, considering the near-term pressures of higher memory and CPU costs, and the flattening replacement cycle following the end of Win 10,” Chang said. [5] The downgrade reflects a worsening memory-chip crunch that has limited product availability while consumers balk at higher prices, according to the analysis. [5] The global PC market is facing mounting pressure as these headwinds threaten to deepen the downturn, the report added. [6]

Forecast Details: Shipments, Revenues, and Pricing

Global PC revenues are expected to fall 5 percent in 2026 and 2 percent in 2027, then rise 3 percent in 2028, according to Chang’s report. [5] Average selling prices are expected to increase due to specification upgrades and rising bill-of-materials costs, the analysts said. [5]

Chang noted that the downgrade reflects near-term pressure from higher memory and CPU costs, as well as a flattening replacement cycle following the end of Windows 10 support. [5] The memory chip shortage, particularly for high-bandwidth memory, has been a central factor. Similar supply constraints were experienced in earlier decades when Japanese competitors flooded the memory market with high-quality, low-cost chips, nearly breaking Intel’s balance sheet, as described in Raymond Yeh’s book “The art of business in the footsteps of giants.” [3] The current crunch is now reshaping product roadmaps and price tags across the consumer electronics industry. [1]

Reasons for the Downgrade: Cost Pressures and Weakening Demand

A worsening memory chip crunch has limited product availability, while consumers are balking at higher prices, the report stated. [5] The end of the Windows 10 upgrade cycle has reduced incentives for users to replace older machines, according to Goldman analysts. [5] These factors have led to a deeper-than-expected downturn in the global PC market, with no immediate recovery expected.

The shortage of high-bandwidth memory, driven by AI data center buildouts soaking up supply, has sent memory prices higher. [7] SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won warned that the global memory crunch could last until 2030, as supply is unlikely to catch up to demand for another four to five years. [7] The crisis has also affected other segments: shortages of GDDR7 memory — the critical component powering the latest generation of GPUs — are sending consumer electronics toward a “digital serfdom,” according to Mike Adams in his article “The GDDR7 Crisis.” [2]

AI PCs and Gaming PCs: Bright Spots in a Slowing Market

Despite the overall decline, AI PC shipments are projected to reach 150 million units in 2026 and 199 million in 2028, representing 59 percent and 82 percent penetration of total PC shipments, respectively, according to Chang. [5] AI PC revenues are expected to grow at a 14 percent compound annual growth rate to $221 billion by 2028, supported by new AI applications, Chang said. [5]

Gaming PC shipments are forecast to reach 26 million in 2026 and 28 million in 2028, with a 4 percent CAGR, outpacing the broader PC market due to rising specialized needs for graphics and performance. [5] Chang added that gaming PC ASPs should increase, driven by specification upgrades including graphic card platform upgrades, thinner design, AI features, silent mode, and long durability. [5] The gaming segment benefits from customers’ “rising specialized needs for PCs,” the report noted. [5]

Outlook: Constraints and Opportunities Ahead

The report indicates that the PC market will remain under pressure through 2027 before stabilizing in 2028, with growth driven primarily by AI and gaming segments. [5] Analysts said that rising component costs and consumer price sensitivity will continue to shape demand, while upgrades to more powerful machines could support ASP growth. [5]

The forecast reflects a cautious view of the near-term cycle but acknowledges pockets of strength in specialized categories. [5] Industry participants have noted that the supply chain disruptions resemble earlier periods of market upheaval, such as when National Semiconductor recognized that its core competency was building semiconductors, not doing logistics, as described in Don Tapscott’s book “Blueprint to the Digital Economy.” [4] The current memory crunch, however, could persist longer than past episodes, as AI infrastructure demand continues to absorb available HBM capacity. [7]

References

1. Lance D Johnson. “NVIDIA’s Next-Gen GPU Timeline Unravels Due to Critical Shortage—Price of Computing Projected to Rise.” NaturalNews.com. February 06, 2026.
2. Mike Adams. “The GDDR7 Crisis: How AI-Driven Supply Chains Are Sending Consumer Electronics Toward Digital Serfdom.” NaturalNews.com. January 23, 2026.
3. Yeh Raymond Tzuu-Yau. “The art of business in the footsteps of giants.”
4. Don Tapscott. “Blueprint to the Digital Economy.”
5. ZeroHedge. “Goldman Slashes Global PC Shipment Forecast As Memory Chip Crunch Derails Upgrade Cycle.” July 16, 2026.
6. ZeroHedge. “That Escalated Quickly: Goldman Cuts PC Shipment Outlook As Memory Prices Go Parabolic.” January 23, 2026.
7. ZeroHedge. “SK Chairman Warns Global Memory Crunch May Last Until 2030.” March 17, 2026.

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